How It Works
How we find statistical edges against bookmaker odds.
The Model
We use a Dixon-Coles Poisson model to predict match outcomes. The model analyses historical team performance, home/away splits, goal-scoring patterns, and recent form to estimate the true probability of each market outcome.
Team Stats
Historical performance data
Model
Poisson probability estimation
Compare
Model vs bookmaker prices
Edge
Publish when edge is 8%+
The Edge
When our model disagrees with the bookmaker by 8% or more, that's a signal. We only publish picks where we have genuine statistical edge — not opinions, not hunches, not “value” based on gut feel.
Model says
67%
Bookmaker implies
51%
Edge
+16%
The Markets
We focus on markets where statistical models have the biggest advantage over bookmakers.
Goals Over/Under
ActiveO1.5, O2.5, O3.5, U1.5, U2.5, U3.5
Both Teams to Score
ActiveBTTS Yes / No
Shots on Target
ActiveTeam shot totals O/U
Corners
ActiveTeam corner totals O/U
Cards
ActiveTeam and match card totals O/U
The Data
18
Leagues
42
Odds Markets
2hr
Update Cycle
Auto
Settlement
Real bookmaker prices captured every 2 hours. Picks settled automatically when matches finish.
Why Not Just Bet on Everything?
Our backtest shows blind betting on Over/Under 2.5 goals loses 4-7% to the bookmaker margin. The bookmaker is right most of the time. But in 15-20% of matches, the data says the bookmaker has mispriced the market. That's where the value is — and that's what we find.
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